Knowns and Unknowns: from Uncertainty and Risk in the Suicide Pool | Mauldin Economics

Being in verification, I find the idea of known and unknown risks interesting.  As does John Mauldin, who is a very interesting guy in a different field.  What *do* you know?

“By ‘uncertain’ knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor is the prospect of a Victory bond being drawn. Or, again, the expectation of life is only slightly uncertain. Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever.”

-John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, 1937

“... there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.”

-Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, 2002

“There are four types of men:

1. One who knows and knows that he knows... His horse of wisdom will reach the skies.
2. One who knows, but doesn't know that he knows... He is fast asleep, so you should wake him up!
3. One who doesn't know, but knows that he doesn't know... His limping mule will eventually get him home.
4. One who doesn't know and doesn't know that he doesn't know... He will be eternally lost in his hopeless oblivion!”

-Ibn Yami, 13^th-century Persian-Tajik poet

Just a tiny interesting excerpt.  Complete article here:

Uncertainty and Risk in the Suicide Pool | Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

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